Analysis of WAEC examination data from 2023 to 2025 for over 48 million Nigerian students exposes a persistent 30% performance gap between the top-performing states (e.g., Abia at 92% average pass rate) and the bottom-performing states (e.g., Oyo at 54%). The data indicates growing economic pressure on Nigerian families, evidenced by a noticeable slowdown in the growth of student participation. Furthermore, structural constraints, such as poor infrastructure and the need for students to contribute to family income, are highlighted by significantly higher absence rates in Northern states (e.g., Sokoto at 6.7%) compared to Southern states. The analysis also shows a divergence in subject performance, with core language subjects recording low pass rates (Yoruba at 32%) and high absence rates, pointing to severe teacher shortages and inconsistent curriculum delivery in non-STEM areas. The findings emphasize that regional disparities in infrastructure and government investment remain the dominant factors determining student success.